Possibly one feature of our risk is that the Pacific plate is schist to greywache (further from the fault). If we confine ourselves geographically to a particular fault or collection of faults, there are two specific timeframes over which a bona fide prediction would be actionable, giving us the chance to meaningfully act to mitigate the worst of the damage and devastation. georgina.mclean@rnz.co.nz. Change ). Date: 2012 Description: Scientists at GNS Science say Alpine Fault may not generate an 8.0 magnitude quake for another 200 years. It last ruptured in 1717 and there is a big earthquake, on average, about every 300 years, but the times vary so there is thought to be about a 30% risk of the next ‘Big One’ in the next fifty years. The Alpine Fault ruptures in a massive earthquake every 300 years, on average, and the last big one was in 1717. What if the big one however many years ago settled the thing for eons and took most of the pressure out ? The first four videos are shorter, and the next four are more detailed and longer format. Crux has published the media release below and a link to the full document but we recommend that you watch the introductory video first. A very badly made mountain. The Alpine Fault is a big feature of South Island geography and seismic activity. The Alpine Fault, which runs about 600km up the western side of the South Island between Milford Sound and Marlborough, poses one of the biggest natural threats to New Zealand - especially the West Coast, Canterbury and Otago. No Dave if the sun goes quite we expect temperatures to keep increasing . Submitted August 15, 2018, SCEC Contribution #8809, 2018 SCEC Annual Meeting Poster #038 New Zealand’s Alpine Fault is perhaps the world’s best example of a relatively simple, hypermature, active continental plate boundary transform. The South Island's Alpine Fault is overdue for a massive earthquake. You can learn more about the AF8 project here. 3 Appendix 1, WCRC Natural Hazards Resource Kit, Revised February 2012, M Trayes The Alpine Fault. Reply. Your comment on climate change goes well with your first comment on this thread. They were able to narrow down the timing of the last big one to 1717 by looking at tree ring patterns. Project Alpine Fault Magnitude 8 (AF8) released a series of videos on Wednesday, warning there’s compelling geological evidence to show it produces a significant earthquake of magnitude eight or greater every 300 years on average. "Intense shaking caused numerous large landslides, forest damage, and long-term changes to drainage and sedimentation patterns in the Southern Alps, across the coastal plain, and offshore," researchers said on Tuesday. The last time this happened was 301 years ago. A big quake on the Alpine Fault could block South Island highways in more than 120 places and leave 10,000 people cut off, new research has estimated. You are wasting your time Griff the whole thing is a massive hoax, I have dumped my solar and stocks and investing in thermals and stockpiling vitamin D tablets and looking forward to ice skating across the Thames like my ancestors. Lets just pretend scary things cant happen so Dave will not get frightened to much ….EH. Project AF8 or Alpine Fault Magni... From: Christchurch City Libraries. An Alpine Fault earthquake will likely rupture a larger fault length (several hundreds of kilometres rather than several tens of kilometres) over a longer period of time (100s of seconds rather than tens of seconds) and affect a much larger area than the Darfield earthquake. Last year marked the 300th anniversary of the last time it ruptured, moving the south-eastern side about eight metres relative to the north-western side in a matter of seconds. Alpine Fault quake expected NZASE article 2019 Scientists estimate a 30 percent likelihood in the next 50 years of a magnitude 8 or higher (M8+) earth- quake along 400km of the Alpine Fault, a strength about three times greater than the 7.8 Kaikoura quake in 2016. "Although Aotearoa New Zealand had been settled by Māori for about half a millennium when the earthquake occurred, oral histories of the event are rare. It’s the Alpine Fault, which runs for hundreds of km down the length of New Zealand South Island. I guess sooner or later they will get something right, I am hoping its the report I saw last week about going into a cooling period because of the rapid decline in sun activity then I can sit in my armchair in 40 years time look back and chuckle. The last rupture was believed to have happened in 1717. The Alpine Fault is the biggest but just one of many fault lines affecting New Zealand. The … The last time was in 1717. Credits: Newshub. Same thing happened with the Kaikoura quakes, but I kept refreshing the page every minute – never seen anything like it before. It is known to produce magnitude 8 earthquakes approximately every 300 years. Source: 1 NEWS . Future Earthquake Predictions. Erosion rates in the hanging wall of the Alpine Fault are high, keeping pace with rock uplift over time frames of 10⁴–10⁶ years. They obtain a good fit to the data but their preferred model dip for the Alpine Fault is not as steep as that observed in the field. Quakes were rippling up & down the Lower NI & Upper SI, back & forth – epicentred all over the show. The last major earthquake on the Alpine Fault occurred 295 years ago. Continuous chatter of … Front page photograph: The Alpine Fault at Inchbonnie – Hohonus and Taramakau River looking east [L.Homer, GNS] M Trayes, Natural Hazards Analyst West Coast Regional Council February 20 12. At the southern end of the Alpine Fault, Page et al. The New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics has published a special issue on the Alpine Fault, which runs the length of the South Island. Date: 2018 Description: A magnitude 8 earthquake on the Alpine Fault is predicted to happen during the lifetime of most New Zealanders alive today. Climate changes..meh.. who cares its been happening since time started and here we are richer and healthier than ever. View large Download slide. I could give you the papers behind the chart and a few more links . Related Articles. 27th June 2019 - New Tourism Minister appointed in New Zealand Cabinet reshuffle. And being on the boundary of the Pacific and Australia tectonic plates, it will happen again. Here, it was like sitting on an overloaded washing machine on the spin cycle. It’s about 30 years past the ‘average’ period of time in which a major 7.8-8.0 quake occurs. "The surprises and insights we gained from witnessing a major surface-rupturing earthquake in modern times have made us even more motivated to compile and present current research on the Alpine Fault. Geologically, this is a high probability. Courtesy of New Zealand Geographic Board Ngā Pou Taunaha o Aotearoa. Geologists don’t appear to be spooked by Mr Ring’s predictions. This is a few years old but is a good look at plate tectonics in New Zealand: Dunedin is about as far as you can get in the South Island from the fault but when the big one strikes it is certain to be felt here (we feel larger Fiordland earthquakes as well as the bigger Christchurch quakes) and it is likely to have  major effects across the South Island, and also in the lower North Island. Experts predicting this will have a 30%+chance of going in the next 50 years. ( Log Out /  Change ), You are commenting using your Google account. An Alpine Fault earthquake will be felt by every South Islander and likely many North Islanders, too. … The length of the rupture will be up to 400 km, eg. The fault line along the South Island ruptures roughly every 300 years. The research has important earthquake hazard implications nationally by providing a much longer record and therefore a more reliable forecast of when the next major earthquake will occur on the southern section of the Alpine Fault. Extensive details are at Project Alpine Fault 8. The special issue was due to coincide with the 300th anniversary, but research into the Kaikoura quake - one of the most complex ever recorded - took priority. The Structural Geology of the Alpine Fault . … Why do people believe in a non-existent Abrahamic God? The earthquake will last for about two minutes. The Alpine Fault is overdue for an earthquake that could reshape the South Island, scientists say. But. Nature Geoscience, 2018; 12 (1): 69 DOI: 10.1038/s41561-018-0272-8 Bertrand Rouet-Leduc, Claudia Hulbert, Paul A. Johnson. Oct 15,2018 The organisation responsible for planning our response to the forecast Alpine Fault earthquake has released a detailed new South Island-wide strategy and explanatory video. The Alpine Fault is where two great tectonic plates (the Pacific and Australian) plates collide. In your deluded little world . Threat of quake in alps wanes. The global median temperature gradient in monitoring boreholes >500 m deep is 30°C/km, and only 1% of boreholes globally have a temperature gradient >80°C/km. Southern end of the DFDP-2B drilling revealed high temperatures adjacent to the Alpine Fault, Page et al viaduct Arthurs... The North Island as Hamilton biggest but just one of many Fault lines affecting New Zealand reshuffle... & Upper SI, back & forth – epicentred All over the.. 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